If foreign policy is built upon a balance of power, the nature of this balance is certainly changing. We no longer live in a world where sheer military force is a major determinant of a country’s international status. The new paradigm sets the stage for a new kind of power - one that rests on economic vitality and persistence. As the world is becoming a truly global marketplace, economic factors coupled with historical, cultural and political assets shape a country’s role for the next millennium.

Given these attributes of the contemporary power game, the decisive element is a country’s ability to make optimal use of its comparative advantages. Turkey, with a multitude of advantages, is poised to be a significant player in the coming decades.

Contemporary Turkey aspires to be the leading economic and political actor in Eurasia. We envisage an international mission which is no longer peripheral and confined to the outskirts of Europe. Our mission envisions a pivotal role in the emerging Eurasian reality.

This is where we stand now, and for several reasons:

1) The central stage of the next millennium, many observers agree, will be Eurasia, defined as the territory stretching from Western Europe to Western China. Given the trends in production, communication and information technologies, Europe and Asia will form an integrated whole, interlinked and interdependent. Both will gain substantially by being part of the same entity. Furthermore, much of the next millennium’s economic development will take place in Asia; the advent of new energy sources and communication corridors bears witness to this emerging reality.

2) The post cold-war political framework witnessed the re-appearance of re-confirmation or several independent states. Out of the multitude of those "new" states, almost all -in the Balkans, in the Caucasus or in Central Asia- are those with whom Turkey shares a mutual history, religion or language. This provides Turkey with a new international environment of historical and cultural dimensions. Furthermore, these new nation-states quickly embarked upon the task of rebuilding their economies as well as opening them to foreign investment and competition. Turkey, as a long-standing actor in these geographies, has become a vital partner in their economic restructuring.

3) This strategic change corresponds with a new consciousness in Turkey. The role of a shared history and of parallel cultural characteristics is highlighted and put into practice in all spheres of our foreign policy. It is worthwhile to note that there are twenty-six countries with which we shared for centuries a common history, a common state and a common fate. This background provides for strong economic relationships and a unique platform for political co-operation. In this vast socio-political geography, Turkey, having the most dynamic economy, most advanced armed forces and the longest running democracy, has optimal conditions to contribute to stability and to enjoy the opportunities presented by the new "Eurasian Order". By virtue of its historical and cultural attributes and its privileged double-identity, European as well as Asian, Turkey is firmly positioned to become the strategic "Centre" of Eurasia.

This brings the present analysis to the subject that this book addresses. Based upon the parameters proposed by the OECD and the average statistical data from the last 25 years, this study attempts to give an objective picture of Turkey for the years 2010 and 2020, within a comparative framework.

Some of the conclusions point at a country, which not only possesses the capability for a pivotal role in Eurasia, but has the economic means as well. Whereas in the past, Turkey was mainly recognised for its strategic contribution to NATO, it now distinguishes itself through its economic vibrancy, its entrepreneurship and foreign trade. Coupled with a new foreign policy approach combining economic progressivism with historical and cultural affinities, Turkey is riding the wave of a new economic momentum, transforming its former regional role into a global one.

I would like to thank Mr Yaman Baskut, the Deputy Under-secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, for all his skill and efforts to realise this present work. I would also like to thank Mr Orhan Güvenen, Under-secretary of the State Planning Organisation - whose expertise and contribution made this study possible.

Talking or writing on Turkey, I know that I can not be considered an "objective commentator". Nonetheless, I think I might claim that we are discussing a case of "realistic aspirations". Of a centuries-old civilisation, of an organisational wisdom which helped the middle ages to transform into the modern centuries, of a country and nation which represent both a unique historical experience and the assertiveness of the Republican era.

History is not lived in vain. Yesterday provides the theory and shapes the present day; the present day puts theory into practice and defines tomorrow. Our societies, coming from their distant past, will carry their own dynamics of development into the coming millennium. I believe in a future that is brighter for humanity. I believe as well in Turkey’s contribution to this future.